Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) looks to be positive news for Australia’s new home construction sector in 2025 according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) economists.
“Building approvals data reveals the ongoing strengthening in the new home building market and continue to point to a moderate-pace recovery in 2025,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Matt King.
The ABS recently released its monthly building approvals data for November 2024 for detached houses and multi-units covering all states and territories.
“Total dwelling approvals fell by 3.6 per cent compared to the previous month but were still up 7.2 per cent over the three-month period,” added Mr King.
“Total dwelling approvals were up 5.4 per cent in the three-month period compared with the corresponding period in 2023. Detached house approvals in the three months to November 2024 increased by a modest 0.7 per cent on the previous three-month period and climbed 7.1 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.”
“Following a period of prolonged weakness, there are signs of life again in building approvals, which is pointing to a nascent recovery in new home building.”
“November 2024 marked exactly one year since the RBA last raised interest rates. Unchanged interest rate settings have provided a welcomed degree of certainty for consumers,” he said.
“Population growth rates have slowed across the country but remain elevated which is contributing to strong underlying demand for housing.”
“Detached house approvals continue to rebound off a very low base, further confirming that the trough of the cycle is now in the rear-view mirror, Mr Kind added.
“Multi-unit approvals rose by 20.1 per cent in the three months to November 2024 and were up 2.6 per cent on the corresponding period in 2023. Despite some observable improvement, approvals for multi-units have been trending at decade-low levels and remain subdued amid challenges with capacity.”
“For the entirety of 2024, multi-unit approval volumes were erratic and trending at decade-low levels. The sector is still reeling from a perfect storm of building material cost escalation resulting from supply chain bottlenecks, skilled labour shortages, credit constraints for businesses, and an elevated public sector infrastructure pipeline that is absorbing skilled trades.”
“The overall outlook for new home building is characterised by a multi-speed recovery with increasingly divergent trends across different regions and housing types.”
“At the national level, market confidence is returning as the majority of capital city and regional markets now appear to have moved through the trough in new home building activity. A national recovery is in sight,” he continued. “Nevertheless, the size of the upswing in new home building activity will be heavily influenced by Federal and State Government housing policy settings.”
“Policy makers must double-down on the pursuit of efficiencies and improvement in industry red tape, the excessive taxation of home build, the availability of land for residential development, and the supply of skilled labour,” Mr King concluded.